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The reason is simple. In the 10 U.S. recessions seen since 1950, U.S. equities typically lost 20% from their pre-recession peak (six to nine months before the official start of recession) to their trough, which tends to only come deep into the recession, and only after the Fed has cut rates aggressively (usually about 400 basis points). These recession-driven equity bear markets typically see profits fall 15% and price-earnings multiples fall 5 points.

It is just not a good time to invest in risky assets. So, even though bond yields are low, they will go lower. We expect 10-year U.S. Treasuries to fall to 1%. However, with Fed funds likely to go close to zero by the end of 2020, shorter-dated bonds, such as two-year Treasuries, might provide better returns.